Diabetes: Too Big and Too Bad to Ignore Any Longer

STUDY

Narayan KM, Boyle JP, Thompson TJ, Sorensen SW, Williamson DF: Lifetime risk for diabetes mellitus in the United States.

SUMMARY

Objective. To estimate the lifetime risk of developing diabetes for people of various ages and the expected effects of diabetes on their life expectancy.

Design and methods. Researchers developed a predictive model, the main dataset for which was derived from an ongoing cross-sectional survey of the U.S. population, which included 120,000 individuals in the year 2000, with additional information from earlier years. Information on mortality rates from U.S. Census Bureau records was also included, as well as diabetes-specific mortality rates from a smaller regional study. The resulting model was extended using a number of conservative assumptions to project the incidence of diabetes and its effects on mortality into the future.

Results and conclusions. The findings were striking. The lifetime risk of developing diabetes for an individual born in the United States in 2000 was estimated to be 33% for men and 39% for women. Risk was lowest for the subpopulation identified as “white” (27% for men and 31% for women) and somewhat higher for those described as “black” and “other” (presumably those of Asian, Pacific Islander, or mixed ethnicity). The highest risk was found in the …